Posts Tagged ‘Currency Trading’
Breakout Fading (Part I)
Suppose you believe that the currency prices will not be able to follow through action in the direction of the breakout. Fading breakouts refers to trading against breakouts. When we believe that breakouts from support and resistance levels to be false and unsustainable we fade breakouts.
False breakouts are a bane for breakout traders but boon for breakout faders. False breakouts are also known as fakeouts. Fading breakouts tends to be more effective as a short term strategy. Fading breakout is not meant to be a long term strategy.
Support and resistance are seen as the price floor and the price ceiling respectively. Support level attracts the buyers enthusiasm for higher bids and prevents the price from falling further. The resistance level attracts the sellers enthusiasm for shorting. It prevents the price action from advancing higher.
It is perfectly logical for the crowd to think that if the support level is penetrated, then the price action should move downward. The crowd is more likely to sell than to buy when the price action breaks the support level from above. The idea of trading breakouts appeals to many independent traders especially those new to currency trading. The crowd likes to trade the breakout.
What is Market Sentiment (Part III)?
Economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment besides the interest rates. When the economy overheats, inflationary pressures increase forcing the Central Banks to increase the interest rates in order to cool the economy. US economy is the key factor in determining the global currency market sentiment. United States is the largest economy in the world. US economic news can and does affect the major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, CHF/USD and JPY/USD.
A strong economic expansion coupled with a healthy labor market tends to boost consumer spending in the country. Good economic growth means low unemployment. Low unemployment means jobs for the people. It helps in selling the stuff produced by the local companies and businesses.
A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract foreign investors. But this economic performance should be consistent and not erratic. With consistent economic growth spread over a decade, foreign investors become interested. Foreign investment flowing into the country increases the demand for that currency. This increased demand for that currency causes it to appreciate against other currencies.
Trading Strategy Based On Market Sentiment (Part I)
How do you view the forex market is very important. Do you see it as a big mechanical matrix which is devoid of emotions? Most traders have a love hate relationship with the forex market. Most think that the market is either against them or for them.
At anyone time, the market is emanating the emotions of currency speculators around the world. The truth is that forex market is just the compressed display of emotions.
You should think of a market as a big living organism. Think that this organism is made up of millions of cells. Each cell is doing its own functions. Each cell also interacts with other cells of the body keeping the living organism alive and kicking around the clock.
Knowing what the market thinks at anyone time and how it thinks is crucial to your trading success. Forex market comprises millions of traders acting out their perceptions and emotions about the different currency pairs.
You need to know what the other participants are thinking. Ultimately, you as the trader are dealing with other traders out there whether they are big institutional players or an independent trader.
Why You Need Mechanical Trading Systems?
Traders use different approaches in their trading. There are always advantages and disadvantages of different systems. Majority of successful traders use self developed mechanical trading systems. The majority of unsuccessful traders depend on discrete trading method.
Many traders use their own developed trading systems. There are many actively developed trading systems for sale as computer programs also known as Expert Advisors or Robots. Theses robots vary widely in prices. It can be from a few hundred dollars to a few hundred thousand dollars.
The significant advantage of these programs is that they generate signals that can be used by the trader for trading. Sometimes these computer programs are developed for a certain bank or a corporation.
The discrete trading method used by many traders is like an artist trying to adapt to different market conditions and using flexibility and tactics corresponding to the particular market condition.
In case of a discrete trading method, the traders mood and health can greatly affect the outcome of each trade. The main disadvantage of the discrete trading approach is due to the stress factor influencing the trader, the unstable trade results.
What Is A MACD Divergence?
Interpreting a MACD divergence can be very useful in your trading. What does a MACD Divergence means? Just that the current price trend is running out of steam. It may not happen right away. But a MACD Divergence is a powerful hint that the market is changing. Spotting a MACD divergence correctly will only come after practice. It is easy to spot MACD crossovers and dramatic rises but not so a MACD divergence.
What you are looking for is when the price action and MACD do not agree. For example, if the price is making a series of higher highs and MACD is making a series of lower lows, something is wrong between the two.
MACD is seen as a sign that fewer and fewer traders are in the trend. No one is trading against the trend. Yet fewer and fewer traders are in the trend. Most probably the traders are getting nervous and slowly fading out of their trades.
The only traders in the trend are nervous and jittery. They want to exit. Most of them are likely to exit their trade at the first sign of trouble. As soon as the bears muster up enough guts to short. MACD is diverging from the bullish trend. The bulls will exit and the bears will take over.
Develop Trading Discipline
Developing trading discipline in yourself is what you should do if you want to become a successful trader in the long run. Suppose in a trading session, you come to a point in your market analysis when you have no confidence on the accurate direction of the market forecast. Things are not clear. Never forget, a lost opportunity is better than lost capital. Choose not to trade.
You should wait for the market conditions to become clearer before you enter a trade. You should increase the probability of success by trading when the trade setups are strong and risk to reward ratio is not more than 1:2. This is far more important in forex than in stock markets. The forex markets move a lot as compared to the stock markets.
You need to learn that high leverage will give you the opportunity to make a lot more money much quicker. But in case you go wrong, currency markets are ruthless. You can get your account wiped out. You dont see an opportunity clearly. Try to sit on the sidelines. You dont have to trade every time. Wait for the market conditions to become clearer. You should learn to be a patient trader. Wait for the market to come to you.
More Money Management Rules Explained
As a currency trader, you should give utmost importance to proper money management in your trading. Most traders dont give much time to money management. They learn a few forex trading strategies and jump into live trading. After losing a good portion of their equity, they come back to money management. Dont do this.
The most important thing for you as a trader is to develop trading discipline. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan. Give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the trade because you are uncomfortable with the risk.
Even after you have suffered a loss, discipline is the ability to continue to trade your system. All successful traders are highly disciplined traders. When they dont achieve immediate success, many traders become disappointed too soon! The most important quality a trader can possess is persistence.
If you apply your system haphazardly or quit too soon, you do not trade in the markets enough to allow your system to produce the wins you are looking for. Force yourself in the beginning to do everything according to the rules of your trading system. You need to develop persistence as a trader.
Following Oil in Currency Trading
If you want to become a good currency trader, then you need to understand that the forex markets evolve and change with time. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit. As the currency markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust to these changes in the markets.
There will be periods of low returns or losses when your trading strategies need adjustment with the markets. But once you have made the adjustments to your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont make the mistake of getting stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Always look at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to these events.
Now, lets discuss a trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the markets. There are many sources of oil. Some currency pairs react more strongly than other when oil prices change. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months.